The war between Israel, with the United States at its side, and Iran has shaken the Middle East and grabbed headlines around the world.
Writer Darryl Kimball pointed out what a blunder the strikes on Iran were in his story "The Israeli-US Strikes on Iran: A Strategic Blunder". He condemned the approach as a departure from an earlier one based on diplomacy and international law: "US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's illegal military attacks against Iranian scientists and safeguarded nuclear sites represents an irresponsible departure from his earlier pursuit of diplomacy. It will increase the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran and erode confidence in the nuclear nonproliferation system."
Three days before Iranian and US negotiators were to meet in Oman, Israel launched air strikes on June 13. The attacks were designed to sabotage the talks and damage Iran's nuclear capabilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that US participation was key to knocking out the most heavily fortified nuclear sites and coercing Iran to give up its nuclear program altogether. This didn't happen. Kimball addressed the state of Iran's program: "Iran's nuclear knowledge, its stockpile of 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60-percent uranium-235, its centrifuge manufacturing capacity, its third underground enrichment site, and its determination to keep the nuclear program going remain. Prior to Israel's attack, there was no imminent threat posed by Iran's nuclear program, and diplomacy had not been exhausted. US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran's leaders had not yet decided to build a bomb, and it would take it a year or more to assemble a warhead small and light enough to be delivered on a ballistic missile."
It might take Iran years to rebuild its enrichment plants to the scale of operations, but it will take only months to enrich its supply of uranium. On top of that, the Israeli-US strikes have severely reduced Iran's incentives to allow the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspection teams, which are essential to account for Iran's nuclear activities and its nuclear material. On-site inspections are crucial if Iran wants to demonstrate that its program is not producing weapons.
Israel has refused to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has some 100 nuclear weapons, as this increases the chances that Iran may make the wrong decision, withdraw from the NPT, and pursue a clandestine weaponization campaign. Kimball said there is a better path than the one being followed - serious nonproliferation diplomacy. The nuclear deal that Trump unilaterally abandoned in 2018, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, imposed limits, prohibitions, and intrusive inspection requirements on Iran that were to last for 10 or 15 years, with some being permanent.
The bombing of Iran has set back any possible arms control deals, at least for now. However, Kimball supported a return to negotiations and letting other Gulf states participate in the goal of returning International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iran. He also said Iran should agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least a year and to transfer its stocks of enriched uranium to another country under safeguards. In addition, Iran should be allowed to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes. If Iran cooperates, sanctions should be lifted.
Mr. Kimball drew out a reasonable plan of action. However, it will not occur unless Iran, Israel, and the US develop the will accept a reasonable plan of action. Can these three states follow the reasonable path?
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project
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