Donald Trump's landslide victory last month and his repeated promise to end the war in Ukraine has Washington neocons quaking in their boots. How can they save their beloved Project Ukraine and prevent peace from breaking out on Russia's border?
That's the question Foreign Affairs (FA) tackled this week in an article by Elie Tenenbaum and Leo Litra. It's entitled "Ukraine's Security Now Depends on Europe." The piece was marked by significant departure from the familiar "official story" on Ukraine. Yet it retained enough of that story's elements to render virtually impossible reasoned discussion about ending the Ukrainian debacle.
The Official Story
To begin with, the FA article tells the story that aficionados of Foreign Affairs, the New York Times, and Washington Post have been programmed to accept. Taking its cue from the White House, the story holds that Putin is the aggressor in Ukraine. He cannot be trusted, lies habitually, routinely breaks promises, and remains unconstrained by international law.
Accordingly, everyone knows that his attack on Ukraine was unprovoked, and that Russia had been raining missiles on terrorized Ukrainian armed forces in the Donbas since 2014. It was Putin who backed out of the Minsk Accords as well as voiding the Istanbul peace framework in March of 2022. Putin also obstinately refuses to consider peace negotiations even though his army has suffered casualties by the hundreds of thousands - far more than his Ukrainian opponents. Moreover, Russia's economy is crumbling while its citizens generally do not support the war effort.
That's the Official Story. It's the one largely repeated by Tenenbaum and Litra.
The Unofficial Story
However, the story's elements are contradicted point by point by highly credible scholars, diplomats, ex-military and CIA officials and independent journalists. A short list of the latter includes John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs, Colonel Douglass MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Ray McGovern, Alexander Mercouris, Brian Berletic, and Chris Hedges.
All these maintain that a U.S.-led NATO provoked the war in Ukraine after completely ignoring Vladimir Putin's peace proposal advanced in December of 2021. Moreover, Russia's invasion mirrors what the United States would do - in fact what it has done - in similar circumstances. Recall the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Remember America's many violent invocations of the Monroe Doctrine to protect its interests in its Latin American "backyard" by direct invasion, proxy wars, and bloody regime changes.
According to the analysts just mentioned, it is the U.S. and NATO that lie habitually and cannot be trusted. In fact, the whole Ukrainian conflict is based on a broken promise by U.S. Secretary of State, James Baker, to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990. It said that NATO would not expand even "one inch" towards Russia.
Then (as admitted by German ex-prime minister Angela Merkel) NATO further tricked Russia into signing the Minsk Accords to provide time for Ukraine to build up its military for confrontation with its neighbor. According to Merkel, NATO had no intention of observing either Minsk I or Minsk II.
Additionally, in December of 2021, when Russia offered NATO those terms to prevent the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. refused to even consider the proposal. Two months later, after only one month of Russia's "Special Military Operation," and after Ukraine and Russia had initialed accords to ensure the former's territorial integrity in exchange for neutrality on Ukraine's part, NATO persuaded its protege' to fight on rather than finalize the accord.
The result of such deceptions has been complete catastrophe for Ukraine. Russia's strategy of attrition has claimed more than 600,000 lives and seriously wounded 100,000 more. As a result, Ukraine is running out of men, its economy is in free fall, and Russian troops are moving relentlessly westward by kilometers every day. Meanwhile, Russia's economy is flourishing despite the war generally supported by its citizens. There is no way Ukraine can bring Project Ukraine to a successful conclusion.
Cracks in the Official Story
Up until recently, NATO's official story held unmovable sway. However, the FA article considered here exhibits important concessions to the unofficial account. For instance, Tenenbaum and Litra admit that: by all accounts Ukraine is losing the war as Russian troops rapidly move towards Kyiv. In fact, it seems nearly impossible to reverse this desperate situation since Ukraine and its allies have not only run short of weapons but also, of soldiers who are getting killed and wounded at unsustainable rates. Additionally, the Russian air force and air defense mechanisms are unmatched by Ukraine. Kremlin's troops also far outnumber the Ukrainians while using and replacing their weapons at a scale Ukrainian allies cannot match.
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