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Trump's China policy is reckless

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Mark Lansvin
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As a Democrat, I find President Donald Trump's recent announcement of a "total reset" in U.S.-China trade relations, following talks in Geneva, to be a troubling mix of empty rhetoric and reckless policy. The claim of "great progress" in negotiations, splashed across his Truth Social platform, lacks substance and raises serious questions about the administration's strategy-- or lack thereof-- in addressing one of the most consequential economic relationships in the world. Far from a breakthrough, this so-called reset appears to be a continuation of Trump's chaotic approach to trade, one that prioritizes headlines over coherent policy and risks long-term damage to American workers, consumers, and global economic stability.

Trump's trade war with China, reignited with a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports, has already sent shockwaves through global markets. These tariffs, coupled with China's retaliatory 125% duties on U.S. goods, have brought bilateral trade-- worth over $650 billion annually-- to a near standstill. The consequences are already evident: American farmers, reliant on Chinese markets for grains and oilseeds, face devastating losses, while consumers brace for higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing. Small businesses, like those at the Canton Fair in Guangzhou, are left with warehouses full of unsold goods, unable to absorb the prohibitive costs of Trump's tariffs. Yet, the president touts a "friendly, but constructive" reset without offering any concrete details on what, if anything, was agreed upon. This opacity is not a sign of diplomatic finesse but a hallmark of an administration more concerned with optics than outcomes.

The timing of Trump's announcement is particularly suspect. Just weeks ago, he doubled down on his protectionist agenda, dismissing concerns about market turmoil and even encouraging Americans to "buy" during a stock market plunge triggered by his own policies. His abrupt pivot to a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries-- excluding China-- smacked of political expediency, not strategic foresight. Now, with the Geneva talks, he dangles the prospect of de-escalation while simultaneously suggesting an 80% tariff "seems right," a figure still high enough to cripple trade. This erratic messaging sows confusion and undermines confidence among businesses and allies alike. Democrats have long warned that such brinkmanship risks tipping the U.S. economy into recession, a fear echoed by the International Monetary Fund's revised 2025 forecast, which projects 3% inflation and a heightened risk of economic contraction due to these very tariffs.

Moreover, Trump's narrative of "opening up" China to American business ignores the complexity of the U.S.-China trade deficit, which stood at $263 billion last year. His simplistic view-- that tariffs alone can force Beijing to abandon its mercantilist model-- overlooks decades of structural issues, from intellectual property theft to state subsidies, that require sustained diplomatic pressure, not theatrical gestures. The Phase One agreement from his first term, often touted as a success, collapsed when China failed to meet purchase commitments, a failure exacerbated by global disruptions like COVID-19. Yet, Trump offers no evidence that his current approach will yield better results. Instead, his administration's refusal to lower tariffs unilaterally, as clarified by press secretary Karoline Leavitt, suggests a stubborn commitment to a lose-lose standoff, one that Citigroup's chief economist Nathan Sheets aptly called "in the interests of neither the United States nor China".

Perhaps most concerning is the lack of transparency surrounding the Geneva talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for over ten hours, yet neither side has disclosed substantive outcomes. This secrecy fuels suspicions of political posturing, especially given Democratic senators' calls for an SEC investigation into whether Trump or his associates profited from advance knowledge of tariff policy shifts. Such allegations, raised by figures like Adam Schiff, underscore a broader erosion of trust in an administration that seems to prioritize personal gain over public interest. As Democrats, we demand accountability and a trade policy grounded in reason, not one that swings wildly between provocation and vague promises of progress.

Trump's "total reset" also risks alienating allies who could help counterbalance China's economic influence. By initially targeting the European Union, Canada, and Mexico with punitive tariffs, only to grant partial reprieves, he has strained relationships with partners critical to a multilateral approach. China's outreach to the EU and G20 nations, as reported by Reuters, signals Beijing's intent to exploit these fractures, positioning itself as a defender of free trade against U.S. "bullying". Democrats have long advocated for strengthening alliances to address China's unfair practices, yet Trump's go-it-alone strategy undermines this goal, leaving the U.S. isolated and vulnerable.

Ultimately, Trump's trade policy is a house of cards built on bravado, not substance. His "total reset" claim is a distraction from the economic pain his tariffs are already inflicting-- pain felt by American farmers, small businesses, and families facing rising costs. Democrats believe in fair trade that protects workers and promotes growth, but this requires patience, coalition-building, and a rejection of the zero-sum mentality Trump champions. Without a clear plan, genuine concessions from China, or a commitment to multilateral cooperation, this so-called reset is little more than a rebrand of a failed approach. The American people deserve better than a trade war waged for headlines, and Democrats will continue to hold this administration accountable for its reckless economic gambles.

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Mr. Lansvin is a strategic advisor on a range of issues for various NGOs and governments around the globe.

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