The war is being waged against the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf. However, the US and Israel are not attacking these countries directly. The US and Israel are attacking Iran to provoke that country into attacking the Arab monarchies. If a direct hit is not enough, then a ricocheting bullet must be used to kill the enemy.
The underlying cause of the conflict in the Middle East is the US government's desire to control global oil prices. This means strengthening American influence over the global economy. In this scenario, Iran must do all the dirty work. Close the Strait of Hormuz. Undermine the investment climate in the oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf. Degrade the gas and oil industries of these countries.
In the early period, the global price of oil(0) would depend on the actions of the US Pentagon, which provoked Iran's attacks on the Persian Gulf countries. Previously, oil prices were controlled by OPEC. This organization, through administrative measures, regulated the balance of supply and demand. OPEC's actions were just as much an intervention in the market economy as the Pentagon's.
In the future, if the level of degradation of the oil industry in Arab countries allows this, the price of oil will be determined by American businesses, which will take financial control of oil production in the Persian Gulf. This will most likely involve a limited US military ground operation in Iran, followed by permanent US military control of key points along the Iranian coast. In exchange for this support, the US will receive a share of the Arab oil business.
That is, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates(1) are countries that lost the war. These countries are losing full control (partial control will remain) over their main source of income-- oil production. This can be described as the seller's loss of the ability to set the price of the commodity. The Arabs accumulated considerable wealth but fell under the political influence of foreign countries. In such a situation, a loss of prosperity is logical. Arab states have repeated Ukraine's mistake.(2)
Paradoxically, Iran is likely not among the losing countries. The United States has a vested interest in the constant threat posed by Iran. This creates a need for American support for the Persian Gulf states. Therefore, the United States may lift sanctions on Iran's oil industry to maintain the country's viability. This will be done after the Americans achieve their desired results in the war. This is typical of the relationship between the two countries. Although the Americans are constantly at odds with the Iranians, the US government does much to ensure that this enemy does not fall.
On August 30, 2021, the US withdrew troops from Afghanistan.(3) This meant lifting controls on the overland supply of all goods and human resources to Iran from China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India. These countries are either neutral or allied with Iran. The withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan provided Iran with a secure rear and supply bases. This reduced the likelihood of Iran losing the war. Even during the current hostilities, the US government has used tactics that bring the Iranian population and government closer together. Iran has been attacked(4) twice(5) in violation of international law and without a declaration of war. And Iran's spiritual leader was assassinated.(6) It's likely the US will continue to act in this manner. With one hand, the Americans are beating Iran. With the other, they are trying to revive Iran so that the country can continue to fight in the ring.
So, Iran certainly won't defeat the US in a war. But in the event of a war with the US, the absence of capitulation would be a victory for any country. Iran's international prestige would increase. And the economic collapse would be offset by the lifting of sanctions. And Iran's nuclear program will most likely be completed. Iran will join the club of countries with nuclear power and possibly nuclear weapons.
Another victorious country will be Israel. It will gain joint control over Arab oil with the United States, thanks to the Jewish lobby in America. But Israel's main advantage will be maintaining its influence over the US political elite. America is the most powerful country in the world. The ability to influence American politicians is the foundation of success for many countries. However, Israel, more than other countries, depends on US support. After all, since May 14, 1948(7) Israel has won all its battles but lost the war for its existence. Because Israel failed to make its Arab neighbors friends. Therefore, without US support, Israel will be destroyed by the Arabs.
Thus, maintaining its status as a US ally is vital for Israel. To achieve this, the Jews decided not to repeat the mistakes of the Europeans. The EU wanted to use its alliance with the US against the US.(8) American politicians were forced to defend themselves.(9) Ultimately, the EU lost the war to Russia(10) and lost its status as the US's main global ally.(11)
Israel independently took the first step in the war to gain control of oil prices. Israel's operation in the Gaza Strip(12) was the first action to provoke Iran. Unlike the Europeans, who chose to fight Russia using deceived Ukrainians, American money, and military support, the Jews bore the full brunt of the war themselves. The Jewish people died and killed, suffering material and reputational losses. The Jews fought honorably for their ideals. In this way, the Jews demonstrated that they are true fighters with whom alliances are beneficial. And the American government appreciated this. US relations with Israel are not the same as with the EU. The US and Israel fought together for the bulk of the war, as befits true allies. Israel is a good ally. The EU is a bad ally. Therefore, the reward for Israel is legitimate and appropriate.
Overall, events in the Middle East are part of the formation of a new world order.(13) This is being driven by the United States. Part of these changes includes the rapprochement between the United States and Russia,(14) changes in domestic policy in the United States,(15) and even the kidnapping of the Venezuelan president. Much more interesting things lie ahead.
References
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