Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
As Iraq approaches its parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2025, the nation stands at a critical juncture. The upcoming vote, the sixth since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, is poised to shape Iraq's political landscape amid ongoing challenges of sectarian tensions, economic recovery, and regional influences. With preparations intensifying, including exceptional parliamentary sessions to finalize electoral laws, the 2025 elections are already generating significant attention both domestically and internationally.
Iraq's political system, established under the 2005 Constitution, operates as a parliamentary democracy with a multi-party system. However, the country has faced persistent challenges, including sectarian divisions, corruption scandals, and external interference, which have eroded public trust in governance. The 2021 elections, held early in response to the 2019 Tishreen protests, saw a historically low voter turnout of around 43%, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the political elite. The protests, driven by demands for better services, job opportunities, and an end to corruption, underscored the urgency for systemic reform.
The 2023 provincial elections provided a glimpse into the evolving dynamics that may shape the 2025 parliamentary vote. According to analysts, the 2023 elections marked a significant reshuffling of Iraq's political landscape, with gains for the ruling Coordination Framework (CF), a coalition of predominantly Shiite parties aligned with Iran. The CF's ability to consolidate power in key provinces, such as Diyala, Salahaddin, and Nineveh, suggests a strategic advantage heading into 2025. However, the elections also highlighted ongoing grievances, particularly among Sunni and Kurdish communities, over issues like electoral representation and transparency.
The Iraqi Parliament is actively working to ensure the 2025 elections are free, fair, and credible. On May 26, 2025, posts on X reported that lawmakers were summoned for exceptional sessions during a parliamentary recess to finalize legal requirements, including electoral and governance-related legislation. This urgency stems from the need to address longstanding issues in the electoral system, such as seat allocation and voter registration processes, which have sparked controversies in past elections.
One contentious issue is the allocation of parliamentary seats for Halabja, a Kurdish-majority province. The Iraqi Parliament's Legal Committee recently ruled out reserving seats for Halabja in the upcoming elections, prompting criticism from Kurdish lawmakers who argue the decision lacks transparency and marginalizes their community. This dispute underscores the broader challenge of balancing representation among Iraq's diverse ethnic and religious groups-- Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, and minorities like Yazidis and Christians.
The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is tasked with overseeing the elections, which will elect 329 members of the Council of Representatives. The electoral system uses a proportional representation model, with seats distributed across Iraq's 18 governorates. However, debates over the electoral law-- particularly the shift in 2021 to a single non-transferable vote system in smaller districts-- continue to stir controversy. Critics argue that the system favors larger parties and undermines smaller factions, potentially exacerbating political fragmentation.
The 2025 elections will see a crowded field of political actors, with the Coordination Framework emerging as a dominant force. On May 26, 2025, the CF announced its intention to contest the elections as a unified alliance in Diyala, Salahaddin, and Nineveh, signaling a coordinated strategy to maintain its grip on power. The coalition, which includes influential Shiite parties like the State of Law and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has benefited from its alignment with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose leadership has gained traction through reforms like the recent amnesty law.
The Sadrist Movement, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, remains a wildcard. Despite boycotting the 2023 provincial elections, the Sadrists have a strong grassroots base and a history of electoral success, as evidenced by their 73 seats in the 2021 elections. Posts on X suggest ongoing debates about the movement's participation, with some users referencing past electoral triumphs and others questioning the state of Iraq's democracy. Whether al-Sadr chooses to re-enter the political fray or maintain his boycott could significantly impact the election's outcome.
Sunni and Kurdish parties are also mobilizing, though they face internal divisions. The election of Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, a prominent Sunni lawmaker with ties to Iran, as parliament speaker in November 2024 highlighted the complex interplay of sectarian and regional influences. Sunni parties, such as those led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, are likely to push for greater representation, leveraging their support for al-Sudani's amnesty law, which freed over 19,000 prisoners, including some former ISIL members. Kurdish parties, including the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), will focus on securing autonomy and addressing grievances over federal budget allocations and disputed territories like Kirkuk.
A new development is the formation of the "Alternative Coalition," announced on May 27, 2025, via X. While details about its composition and agenda remain sparse, this coalition could represent a counterweight to the CF, potentially uniting smaller parties or disaffected factions seeking to challenge the status quo.
The 2025 elections face significant hurdles. Voter apathy, fueled by distrust in institutions, remains a major concern. The low turnout in 2021 and the 2023 provincial elections reflects a broader sentiment that elections have failed to deliver meaningful change. Corruption allegations, particularly against entrenched elites, continue to undermine public confidence. The misuse of public resources and non-transparent campaign financing, as noted in Albania's recent elections, could also plague Iraq's vote if not addressed.
Security is another pressing issue. While Iraq has made strides in stabilizing areas once controlled by ISIL, the release of former ISIL members under the amnesty law has raised concerns about potential unrest. The law, passed to alleviate prison overcrowding, was a key demand of Sunni parties but remains controversial among other communities, particularly Yazidis, who suffered immensely under ISIL's reign.
External influences, particularly from Iran and Turkey, will also play a role. Iran's backing of Shiite factions within the CF gives it significant leverage, while Turkey's regional ambitions could affect Kurdish and Sunni dynamics.
The 2025 elections could either reinforce Iraq's fragile stability or deepen its divisions. A strong showing by the Coordination Framework would likely solidify al-Sudani's leadership and Iran's influence, potentially alienating Sunni and Kurdish communities. Conversely, a fragmented parliament with no clear majority could lead to prolonged coalition negotiations, as seen in Germany's recent chancellor vote, delaying critical reforms.
For Iraq's youth, who drove the 2019 protests, the elections are a litmus test for whether the political system can address their demands for jobs, services, and accountability. A failure to deliver could reignite unrest, particularly in urban centers like Baghdad and Basra. Meanwhile, the international community, including the United States and the European Union, will closely monitor the elections for signs of democratic progress or backsliding.
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