United States President Donald Trump boasted and sold the recent Caracas raid as the most spectacular U.S. military operation since World War II: bomb the capital, drag Venezuelan president Nicola's Maduro from his compound, declare victory, and "run Venezuela" while seizing its oil. Yet within 48 hours, what was supposed to be a textbook decapitation strike had mutated into a geopolitical and constitutional crisis, with Venezuela's institutions still intact, its leadership coordinated, and Trump's occupation plan collapsing in real time. Far from a clean regime change, the operation has - so far - collided head"'on with a resistance strategy Caracas appears to have prepared well in advance-- and the collision is exposing every fault line in Trump's approach to power, law, and war.
From published reports Venezuela is quiet, its government is in place and there are no mass political protests of pro-opposition and pro-USA elements across the nation. On the contrary, while there is some anger and opposition to the government of Nicholas Maduro, there is a growing realization that the country now completely angered by the unprecedented U.S. actions will put aside its internal issues and galvanize around a pro-Venezuela resistance.
From Shock and Awe to Strategic Failure
Operation "Absolute Resolve," as Trump's team branded it, was months in the making. According to reporting the CIA inserted a covert team into Venezuela as early as August 2025, compiling granular intelligence on Maduro's movements, routines, and even his pets. Delta Force operators trained on a replica of Maduro's compound, built from classified imagery; by December, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group led the largest U.S. naval buildup in South American waters in modern history.
Between September and late December, the administration authorized 35 strikes on alleged Venezuelan "drug boats," killing about 115 people without "charge or trial," and conducted a CIA drone strike on a dockyard, all under a counter"'narcotics banner. Airspace was closed, an ultimatum was reportedly delivered to Maduro, and Trump gave final approval for the raid before Christmas, convinced that overwhelming force would either compel surrender or clear the way for a swift invasion and transition.
Tactically, the operation worked: Yes, U.S. forces reached Caracas, bombed targets, seized Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York in handcuffs aboard a warship. Trump unsealed federal indictments, held a triumphant press conference, and declared that America would now run Venezuela and recoup its costs through oil revenue. Strategically, however, the plan failed at the very moment it came up against political reality. "-
Caracas Refuses to Fall
So, roughly 48 hours after the raid, Venezuela's state apparatus remains intact. Verifiable updates from reputable outlets like Chatham House and NBC showed the Venezuelan government still issuing orders, commanding loyalty, and activating national defense plans-- even as its president sits in U.S. custody. By any measure this is not chaotic collapse; it is a chess board master strategy of organized resistance anticipated by the Maduro government that took into consideration that the president would be kidnapped or killed and what to do the day after. The level of internal calmness, control and the forceful rejection of Trumpian colonial bombast while demanding the return of President Maduro also suggests to me that the government had a succession plan in place long before the bombings started.
For example, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice in Venezuela issued an order directing Vice President Delcy Rodr-guez to assume responsibilities in Maduro's absence, not as a new president, but as a caretaker under his continuing authority. This is important. On state television, Rodr-guez delivered a carefully calibrated address: she demanded proof of life for Maduro and Flores, condemned the operation as an illegal kidnapping, reaffirmed Maduro as Venezuela's only president, and vowed the country would never again be a colony of any empire.
No, this was not panic. It was a deliberate positioning-- and it immediately blew up Trump's spin and triumphalist, chest-thumping narrative. During his Mar-a-Lago press event, he claimed Rodr-guez had been sworn in as president, had spoken "graciously" with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and had essentially agreed to cooperate with the invader: "We'll do whatever you need," he paraphrased. Yet Venezuelan broadcasts showed no such swearing"'in, no mention of cooperation, and a vice president explicitly rejecting U.S. authority. Either Trump or Rodr-guez is lying. If its Trump as it appears to be then he's deliberately gaslighting the American people and the international community.
Further, its either Trump fabricated cooperation, or Rodr-guez is playing a sophisticated double game: possible private contact, paired with overt public defiance. But in both scenarios, the outcome is the same: Trump has no compliant local partner, no constitutional legitimacy on the ground, and no clear path to translate a limited military win into political control.
Constitutional Continuity as Resistance Weapon
The genius of Caracas's response lies in its use of constitutional form as a shield. By keeping Rodr-guez as vice president-- rather than proclaiming herself acting president-- the government preserves the claim that Maduro remains the legitimate head of state, illegally abducted by a foreign power. In this framing, Rodr-guez is not a collaborator implementing a U.S. transition, but a caretaker defending her country's sovereignty until the president's return.
That move denies Donald Trump and his minions three critical pillars he assumed he would have:
- A "new" Venezuelan government to recognize and front the occupation.
- A plausible narrative of democratic transition or constitutional succession. Installing a puppet regime that does his bidding as the new Nabob of Venezuela.
- A local signature under which U.S. control could be dressed up as partnership.
Instead, as of today the United States is left fundamentally occupying nothing formally-- no ministries ceded, no armed forces re"'badged, no legal cover from Caracas. Venezuela has effectively created a limbo in which Trump holds the man but not the state. The government still claims continuity; the opposition is sidelined; and U.S. forces float above a political landscape that refuses to acknowledge their authority.
Political analysts believe that Venezuela's reaction is not improvised. It reflects hard lessons learned from two decades of failed U.S. interventions. In Iraq, the Bush administration toppled Saddam Hussein quickly, only to face a long insurgency waged by Ba'ath loyalists, Sunni militants, and later Iran"'backed Shiite militias. In Libya, NATO helped kill Muammar Gaddafi but left no viable successor, unleashing a fragmented civil war and extremist enclaves. In Afghanistan, a U.S."'funded government collapsed in eleven days once American troops withdrew, revealing institutions hollow of legitimacy beyond foreign sponsorship.
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