Presidents almost always lose House seats in their midterms; it is one of the most reliable patterns in American politics. Only three presidents have broken that trend in the last century: Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, and George W. Bush in 2002, in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
With his approval rating sinking and the fallout from the Epstein story still in the news, Trump's Republicans looked poised to follow the midterm script. Given their already slim majority, this would likely give the Democrats control, ushering in a level of accountability his current term lacks.
Trump's plan to cut these losses was to break with the usual precedent and push for mid"'cycle redistricting designed to dilute the votes of those who oppose him. Why bother broadening your base when you can give the existing one more power?
To a casual observer, the strategy looked brilliant: a way for Republicans to choose their voters rather than risk the electorate empowering Trump's opponents. Why hadn't other presidents thought of that? For the MAGA faithful, it became yet another example of Trump's supposed political genius.
There were a few flaws in Trump's plan, the first being that it assumed Democratic"'leaning states would not react. Did he really believe they would stand by while red states padded their representation in Congress?
Texas was the first state to answer Trump's call to action. Its congressional boundaries were already widely viewed as heavily gerrymandered, but the state pushed the process to the extreme. Analysts estimated the map could yield five additional Republican seats if 2024 voting patterns remained consistent.
California was the first blue state to react. Unlike Texas, where the legislature changed the borders, California put the issue before the electorate. Ignoring what had been done in Texas, Republicans complained that Proposition 50 unfairly disenfranchised their voters by suspending the existing system that allowed a non-partisan board to draw the boundaries in favor of a gerrymandered map that could give Democrats five additional seats.
California voters passed the proposition by a wide margin, with 64.5% supporting the new map. This move effectively neutralized the advantage Texas's legislature had given Republicans.
North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio were the next states to act, increasing the number of red seats available. These moves were countered by Virginia, leaving the battlefield almost exactly where it started when Trump launched his plan. Florida then adopted a map designed to add as many as four additional Republican seats.
In the ongoing back-and-forth, Virginia's Supreme Court then invalidated Virginia's election, meaning Trump's grand plan will give Republicans a net gain of eight seats, but at what cost? The Virginia ruling has the potential to energize Democratic turnout in November further. Agitating your opponents has a way of doing that.
The pickup of eight seats is hardly guaranteed. The entire redistricting race assumed Trump would hold together the coalition that backed him in 2024. But polls now show him losing support among key groups, especially Hispanics who backed deporting violent offenders but strongly oppose seeing grandmothers, sick children, and long"'time workers with clean records being targeted.
With some formerly safe districts now vulnerable in a potential blue wave, these gerrymandered seats may become dummymanders: maps that collapse the moment the political winds shift. A president with keener political instincts would have recognized these risks before building a trap for himself.
Carl Petersen is a former Green Party candidate for the LAUSD School Board and a longtime advocate for public education and special needs families. Now based in Washington State, he writes about politics, culture, and their intersections at TheDifrntDrmr.
