Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The Hague/Rotterdam. In a significant development for Syria's war-ravaged economy, the Dutch energy trading giant Vitol is preparing to load the first shipment of Syrian crude oil since the lifting of Western sanctions. This move signals a potential turning point for the country's energy sector, which has endured over a decade of destruction and disruption due to conflict.
According to a Bloomberg source familiar with the matter, the world's largest independent oil trader will ship the crude to a refinery in Italy. The loading operation is scheduled to commence imminently.
This landmark shipment follows the decision by U.S. President Donald Trump in July to lift long-standing American sanctions, a move aimed at bolstering the country's struggling economy and supporting the new government. This action was preceded two months earlier by the European Union lifting all remaining economic sanctions on Damascus.
Bloomberg, citing two regional oil flow observers, reported that no other shipments of Syrian crude have been identified since the sanctions were eased.
Prior to the outbreak of war in 2011, Syria's oil production was a cornerstone of its economy, averaging hundreds of thousands of barrels per day (bpd). This output slowed to a trickle as the security situation deteriorated, triggering a massive humanitarian displacement crisis.
Data from CEIC indicates that Syrian exports peaked at approximately 380,000 bpd in 2002 before declining in subsequent years. The resumption of maritime exports is now seen as critical for a country with a crippled economy and a government in desperate need of foreign currency.
Last month, the Syrian Ministry of Energy auctioned approximately 500,000 barrels of medium-gravity, high-sulfur crude oil via a notice on its Facebook page.
With the fall of the Assad regime, many Syrians pin their hopes for national reconstruction on the revitalization of the oil and gas sector, whose revenues are deemed essential for rebuilding the country.
Commercial oil production in Syria began in 1968 after discoveries in the late 1950s. Production rose steadily, reaching an average of nearly 560,000 bpd by the mid-1990s and peaking at 667,000 bpd in 2002. It then stabilized at around 350,000 bpd until 2011, after which technical and logistical issues caused a severe decline.
Syria's oil production has passed through three distinct phases:
Stable Production (1968-late 1980s): Output ranged between 200,000-300,000 bpd. With oil prices below $16 per barrel, this still generated over $1.1 billion annuallyroughly 25% of the state budget at the time. Notably, these oil revenues were reportedly not included in the official budget and were instead allegedly channeled towards military procurement.
Peak Production (1990s-2011): Production surged above 400,000 bpd, exceeding 600,000 bpd in the early 2000s. Coupled with rising global oil prices (from $36 in the 1990s to over $140 in 2008), this phase potentially generated annual revenues of at least $14 billion, which are believed to have primarily benefited the Assad regime.
Decline (2011-Present): Production collapsed below 100,000 bpd due to well disruptions, absenteeism, the exodus of international firms, and sanctions. Control over key fields shifted between the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF currently produces an estimated 50,000 bpd, while the government manages around 15,000 bpd from smaller fields, bringing total output to approximately 65,000-70,000 bpd. This oil was often sold at a discount due to sanctions, generating an estimated $1 billion annually distributed among the controlling factions.
Domestically, oil is consumed for residential heating, transportation, industrial use, and used to generate electricity. The combination of shattered production and sustained consumption has created a massive deficit, forcing Syria to import fuel despite having significant untapped resources.
Syria's gas sector is even more complex. The country holds the 42nd largest gas reserves globally, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating 700 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the Mediterranean alonereserves that remain unexploited due to cost and instability. Total estimated reserves are 250 bcm.
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