Politicians don't control the world. They merely control the narrative of the world. Seeking votes, politicians create the narrative of the world they desire. This narrative doesn't necessarily have to be true, but it does have to lead to electoral victory. This is the foundation of modern political power. New York City, for example, illustrates how this works.
Thanks to the efforts of politicians,(1) New York City is perceived by foreigners as a desirable destination for immigration. Consequently, New York City leads all U.S. metropolitan areas in terms of the number of immigrants. It is home to 13% of all immigrants who have arrived in the country over the past 50 years.(2) The total immigrant population in the city was approximately 3 million in 2023, or 38% of the city's total population.(3)
But can a city be considered a good place to live if more people leave it than enter? From 2000 to 2019, New York City almost always had negative net domestic migration. This means that fewer people move to New York from other US cities than leave New York for other cities. And the difference between these figures is very large. For example, from 2010 to 2022, the negative net domestic migration rate ranged from 50,000 to 310,000 people annually!(4) But that's not all. The negative net domestic migration rate is so high that it almost always eliminates the excess birth rate over death. This means that about 100,000 people are born in New York City every year, and about 50,000 die.(5) However, the annual outflow of population from the city through net domestic migration is more than 50,000 people. This eliminates the excess birth rate over death.
In the current situation, foreign immigration is becoming a natural alternative for replenishing the city's population. However, this goal can only be achieved by attracting large numbers of foreigners. This isn't always possible. For most of the period from 2000 to 2019, the number of residents moving into the United States (negative net domestic migration) was two to three times greater than the number of foreigners immigrating to New York City from abroad. This means that each year, 100,000-150,000 people left New York City, while approximately 50,000 foreigners arrived. Only between 2009 and 2012 were these figures equal. Then, the number of foreigners entering and New Yorkers leaving the city was approximately 50,000.(5)
To be fair, it should be noted that in 2023-2024, the number of foreign immigrants finally exceeded the number of New Yorkers leaving the city. This difference was approximately 50,000 people per year.(5) This excess of foreign immigration over negative net domestic migration, whether coincidentally or not, coincided with a decline in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate in New York City.(5) Since 2000, the birth rate in the city has almost always been twice as high as the death rate. But since 2021, the birth rate has begun to decline and the death rate has increased.(5) The excess of foreign immigration over negative net domestic migration also followed the catastrophic population decline during the pandemic.
It can be argued that foreign immigrants are the sole reason why New York City's population hasn't declined over the past 25 years. In fact, it has increased by a few percent, from 8,008,278 in 2000(4) to 8,478,072 in 2024.(6) This modest population increase of 470,000 people occurred during a period when approximately 1.2 million people were born in New York City and approximately 1.3 million foreign immigrants arrived.(5)
Let's reiterate. Almost always, the total number of people leaving the city and dying there each year is greater than the number of people born in New York City and those who immigrated to New York City from other US cities.(4) This has been the case for long periods of time. For example, this was the case from 2015 to 2022. Only foreign immigrants prevent New York City from depopulating. For example, in 2013, the number of people born in New York City was 65,000 more than the number of deaths. However, in that same year, 65,000 more people left New York City for other US cities than immigrated from there. This eliminated any potential population growth due to the excess of births over deaths. However, the approximately 50,000 foreign immigrants who arrived in the city contributed to the population increase.
A similar situation was observed in 2014. However, since 2015, even the influx of foreign immigrants has lost significance. Back then, the number of foreign immigrants arriving was about 50,000 per year.(5) However, the number of people leaving New York City has become almost 100,000 more than the number of people arriving from other US cities. Since 2016, this number has always exceeded 100,000. And in 2021 and 2022, this figure reached 310,000 and 220,000 people, respectively!(4) These numbers are reduced by about 100,000 due to births.(5) But these numbers are increased again by approximately 50,000 deaths each year.(5) As a result, in 2021 and 2022, New York City will lose about 260,000 and 170,000 people, respectively.
This is more than at any time since the turn of the century. Whether by chance or not, after a catastrophic population decline, an equally catastrophic population growth occurred. This occurred, as always, due to foreign immigrants. Their arrival was so urgent and massive that it has become known as the "immigration crisis." Between 2022 and 2024, approximately 210,000 asylum seekers arrived on the streets of New York City.(7) The number of new arrivals almost matches the number of New Yorkers who left two years earlier. Population stabilization cost the city budget $2.62 billion from 2023 to 2025. And the total expenditure for these purposes is expected to reach $4.3 billion by 2027.(7) However, these expenditures justify political goals!
A consistent population decline over a quarter-century would have sent a clear political signal. Population decline is always evidence that voters want to find a better life elsewhere. However, constantly attracting foreigners who don't know the reality of life in the city helps politicians avoid political responsibility. Thus, New York has transformed from a city losing population into a hub for international immigration. The right political decision!
References
1. wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_New_York_City
2. click here
3. click here
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