This will not be popular on this blog:
1. War crimes. Russia has committed war crimes from the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014. After the 2022 invasion, America and Ukraine held back from doing the same, but this was untenable. Ukraine was getting killed while Russia was just running out of manpower and weapons, while gearing up for more at home. Gradually, Biden & Zelenskyy began attacking Russia too. Now, Ukraine is launching more drones against Russia than the reverse; they are supplying drones to the desperate Gulf states who belatedly realize the U.S. is fighting with near obsolete 20th century technology (not counting satellites) and to their neighboring states (except for pro-Russia Hungary). There are & will be more war crimes.
2. Bridges & Power plants help Iran's military as well as its civilians. Bridges have been blown up in wars for centuries. Power plants supply vital electricity to modern warfare. They are legitimate targets. Without power, however, the desalination plants will halt & already water-short Iran will go without water - civilians first, but military too. This is a war crime, but since there's no water desalination plants just for the military, there's no way to avoid this.
3. Muslim vs. Muslim wars are endemic with war crimes. No one even mentions that. Islam simply does not care about human life the way the West does, yes, even now. It's impossible to defeat them without going down to their level at least sometimes.
4. Islam, led by Iran, is the most imperialist force today and for most of the last 1,400 years. Islam is dominant in 56 countries but arose in only one: Saudi Arabia (or, just "Arabia" before the House of Saud took it over). These countries are never governed by democracy even if they hold some elections; even Iran has an elected president, but the Ayatollahs & IRGC rule it. Islam in its full form is incompatible with the West. There's too many reasons why to explain here, but the fact they shoot 1,000s of their own peaceful unarmed protestors should be all you need to know. Many Iranians want the regime gone even if their country has to be bombed. It's impossible to cut through the propaganda on both sides to know if that's a majority of Iranians. Persia was there 1,000s of years, before Islam in 1979.
5. It's not just Israel's war. Saudi Arabia, the Abraham Accord countries & even pro-Hamas Qatar want Iran controlled, even while they negotiate with them & fume at how ineffective the U.S. is in protecting them.
6. How will this end? It may end...tomorrow. If Trump carries through with his Bridge & Power Plant attack tonight, the IRGC will counter-attack not only our planes - which Trump has set a timetable of 8pm-12am for - but every Gulf country in the region. There's almost nothing America/Israel can do about that tonight. Attack sorties are planned far in advance & tightly choreographed. They don't deviate to "Oh, I think I'll fly my plane to bomb over there, where a missile was just launched." There are tight missions in modern aerial attacks. The entire Middle East may be offline tomorrow. And for years or decades (Geostrategist Peter Zeihan thinks decades), not months. Oil will explode past $150/barrel tomorrow, markets will crash by 5-10% in a day or two, and keep going down as oil & many other important things, keep climbing in price with no real substitutes in the short run.
Israel may survive but it's hurt more than they admit because there's not a lot of "unneeded" territory to forego in that tiny country. America will still have to contend with an Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, but it'll be a Pyrrhic victory because no one will be shipping anything. Trump will declare victory. The Gulf states will think very hard about ever allowing America to rebuild their bases/targets in their regions again.
In the medium future, green energy will start to finally displace oil for transportation & electricity wherever possible, since oil will be so expensive. The air will clear. The oil curse will have been cast for a generation, long enough to shift power permanently to renewable sources available in home countries.
Or...Trump could just postpone his deadline, again.
Negotiations could resume, but the ending then is uncertain & prolonged. Will the world wait while oil goes to $150/barrel anyway?
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