The risk of a regional war in the Middle East is now at its highest in decades, with the threat of further escalation, proliferation, and even the use of nuclear weapons or attacks on nuclear installations a real possibility, as stated by writer Almuntaser Albalawi in his story "Will There Ever Be a WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East?"
A confrontation between Israel and Iran could trigger significant shifts in the nuclear doctrines of regional states and, beyond that, further undermine nonproliferation norms in the region and the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty regime. The prospects of a return to the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal remain remote, and regional arms control issues are rarely on the agenda of ongoing, high-level political and security talks. Moreover, nuclear rhetoric among political leaders in the region who advocate for the development of nuclear weapons, their use in conflicts, or the targeting of nuclear infrastructure makes things worse. Albalawi addressed the fraying of arms control: "This alarming scenario is becoming more plausible due to the stagnation of the international nonproliferation regime and regional arms control diplomacy. Internationally, bilateral and multilateral disarmament and arms control regimes are in danger of becoming dysfunctional. Geopolitical tensions, threats of nuclear use, the expansion of nuclear stockpiles among nuclear-armed states, noncompliance issues, and a lack of progress in honoring past commitments and advancing beyond them have resulted in a loss of credibility and deadlocks within these regimes."
Nuclear Proliferation Treaty states-parties have discussed nuclear risks in the Middle East extensively for years. Still, they failed to reach a consensus on a final document at their last two NPT review conferences. This reflects widening global disagreements on the path forward for the global nonproliferation regime. The chances for a different outcome at the next review conference in 2026 don't look good.
More efforts are needed to go beyond the traditional nonproliferation toolkits and to facilitate and revitalize regional arms control initiatives in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the five-year-old conference mandated by the UN General Assembly on the establishment of a Middle Eastern zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction is the only existing forum where regional states currently discuss regional arms control. Although this conference's relevance should be higher than ever, it has received too little attention from policymakers. The conclusion of the fifth annual conference session in November provides a timely opportunity to reflect on what has been achieved so far toward establishing the zone, what challenges have emerged over the past five years, and how the conference impacts global nonproliferation and disarmament diplomacy. Albalawi addressed what needed to happen: "Despite some noteworthy progress, including fostering dialogue among participating states on reducing WMD risks in the region, more work still is needed to sustain momentum in the future. This includes steps that the conference could take to strengthen its work and draw absent parties into the process. It is also essential that the conference explore potential implications for the NPT review process, given the interlinkages and interdependencies between the two processes."
Albalawi stated the conference should build on the NPT, the Biological Weapons Convention, and the Chemical Weapons Convention. Verification is one of the most discussed topics in the ongoing deliberations. The conference agreed to build on existing international organizations, such as the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the International Atomic Energy Agency, for verification mechanisms to avoid duplication. The fourth and fifth conference sessions, in 2023 and 2024, respectively, took place during a tough time for the region. Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon added to existing challenges for the conference.
Albalawi said that despite the war in the region, the last two conference sessions witnessed notable procedural and substantive progress. What's the future of arms control in the Middle East? It's a volatile region with religious and ethnic tensions. Time will tell its own story. Let's hope the conference mentioned above and the idea of arms control will take hold in the region. After all, the Middle East needs a breather from war!
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project
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