In July 2022, Russia increased the size of its military 25 percent, adding soldiers to its active roll. With conscription in effect, Russia may reach a 2.5 million soldier army. The Russian population is 140 million. The Ukraine population is 40 million. Russia has 3.5 times more able-bodied people than Ukraine. In 2024, Russia reported 700,000 troops fighting in Ukraine. In 2024, the United States reported that Russia suffered 300,000 casualties. This is a haunting figure that compares to the over 400,000 United States casualties memorialized in WWII.
In 2024, the United States appropriated 175 billion dollars to help Ukraine fight Russia. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Ukraine's military spending in 2019 and 2020 averaged 5.5 billion dollars a year. By 2023, this figure increased to 64 billion dollars. The help from the United States has bolstered Ukraine's military by over 90 percent. In addition, the Biden Administration brokered a ten-year security deal with Ukraine, but the appropriation is dependent upon Congress.
Ukraine's GDP is 160 billion dollars, which is only 7.1 percent of Russia's GDP. Russia has a GDP of 2 trillion dollars and has the ability to out-produce Ukraine over time. Before 2022, Russia's military spending was ten times greater than Ukraine. Russia could defeat Ukraine. However, in 2022, Ukraine became dependent upon the United States. As a result of United States involvement, Russia has increased military spending to 109 billion dollars, a 45 billion dollar increase. The cost of war is now more for Russia. If the United States funds Ukraine for ten years at present amounts, then Russia will no longer see Ukraine as a single enemy.
September 2023, Russia announced the Sarmat II missile is deployed in "special regime of combat duty". The missile range is about 11,000 miles, which can reach beyond the borders of Ukraine, and even across the Atlantic Ocean. The circumference of Earth is 24,000 miles. Russia has introduced a rhetoric of nuclear war, which is directed at the United States. Russia has deployed tactical nuclear missiles on their border.
The cost of war is expensive. War does not produce. It destroys. Russia has lost many thousands of men. Russia has increased their budget by 10 billion dollars. The United States is the cause to Russia's inability to force Ukraine's capitulation. According to Russia's resolve despite their casualties and increased spending, an estimate suggests the United States would have to spend at least 50 billion dollars a year to prevent Ukraine's surrender. However, this minimum commitment does not give Ukraine the advantage; rather it would fuel the war in an inconclusive way with no clear outcome. This is the present United States policy.
Spending billions of dollars a year for an unknown outcome is wasteful. If Ukraine is to win the war, the United States would need to spend more in Ukraine than Russia. The United States taxpayers will not agree to spending on a war so far away. Logistically and historically, a war with Ukraine follows the poem by Lord Tennyson "The Charge of the Light Brigade," We will not win there.
