Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
The 1979 Camp David Accords, long the cornerstone of Middle Eastern stability, are facing their most severe test in decades. A calculated campaign of political and economic pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is pushing the historic "cold peace" with Egypt to a potential breaking point, creating a volatile new dynamic across the region. At the heart of the escalating tension is a confluence of disputes over a multi-billion-dollar gas deal, unsubstantiated claims of an Egyptian military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula, and a fundamental disagreement over the future of Gaza.
The Gas Deal and Fabricated Crises
The most immediate flashpoint, as detailed by former Israeli Knesset member Ksenia Svetlova in the Financial Times, is Netanyahu's threat to derail a $35 billion gas deal with Egypt. This move, which Svetlova labels a "grave mistake", would undermine what she calls "Israel's most vital Arab partnership".
The official justification from Netanyahu's government is an alleged Egyptian violation of the peace treaty through an unsanctioned military deployment in Sinai. This claim, which Egypt vehemently denies, has been amplified by Netanyahu's Likud party and media allies. Earlier this year, Israel's ambassador to the U.S. warned American Jewish organizations of an "obvious violation" in Sinai, promising a "very decisive" Israeli response.
However, these allegations have been systematically debunked. Svetlova notes that senior Israeli security officials later clarified that social media reports of an Egyptian troop surge were "incorrect and published by right-wing figures for political reasons".
This points to what Svetlova describes as a disturbing pattern of "fabricated" and "manufactured" crises designed to pressure Cairo into accepting policies it cannot possibly adopt. This campaign is intrinsically linked to the post-war planning for Gaza. With Netanyahu's government offering vague slogans like "No Hamas, No Palestinian Authority", a policy vacuum has emerged, allowing extremist notions to take hold - chief among them, the expectation that Egypt might accept the "voluntary displacement" of Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai.
The pressure campaign has a direct American dimension. According to a report by Axios, Netanyahu presented U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio with a list of alleged Egyptian activities in Sinai, urging the Trump administration to compel Cairo to reduce its military presence.
Egypt's response has been firm. An official presidential statement reiterated that its forces in Sinai are positioned to secure its borders against terrorism and smuggling, in full coordination with treaty partners. The statement reaffirmed Egypt's absolute rejection of any plan to displace Palestinians from their land.
A Shifting Regional Defense Posture
The tension between Egypt and Israel is not occurring in a vacuum. It comes as Netanyahu's government projects an image of military dominance, emboldened by successful operations targeting resistance figures and military leaders across six Arab nations. This aggressive posture has extended to unofficial threats against both Ankara and Cairo, prompting a significant recalibration of regional defense strategies.
In response, regional powers are forging new alliances:
* Turkey and Egypt: Once rivals, the two nations are now experiencing the best relations in their modern history, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. The shared stance on the Israeli war in Gaza has deepened this cooperation, culminating in joint naval maneuvers dubbed "Sea of Friendship". These exercises signal the potential for a new regional security architecture, raising concerns in both Israel and Greece.
* Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: In a move described by observers as a "sudden and shocking geopolitical development", Saudi Arabia recently signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan, further indicating a regional shift away from reliance on traditional Western security guarantees.
The U.S. Role: A Partnership Under Strain
The Egypt-U.S. relationship, a decades-long strategic partnership, is undergoing a delicate recalibration under President Donald Trump's second term. While foundational elements like the $1.3 billion in annual military aid and the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ) trade agreement remain, clear points of friction have emerged.
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
Post Article Comment and Rate This Article
