Steven Sahiounie, journalist and political commentator
Israel carries out multiple attacks across Lebanon on an almost daily basis, despite a US-brokered ceasefire almost one year old. Israel has refused to comply with the terms of the ceasefire, which include withdrawal from five occupied points and the cessation of attacks on Lebanon.
Part of the ceasefire agreement is the goal to disarm Hezbollah, the Lebanese resistance organization. However, Hezbollah refuses to disarm while the country has been invaded, attacked and the Israeli military has shown no signs of leaving, or living up to the agreed ceasefire.
The Lebanese government is stuck between demanding the invaders leave, and demanding Hezbollah disarm. The Lebanese people, regardless of religious or political views, feel there is no dignity in disarming before the invaders leave.
In a typical Hollywood movie, where one side is paying ransom to get a kidnapped person back to safety, the exchange between the two sides must occur simultaneously. In this case, Israel has kidnapped an entire country, Lebanon. Hezbollah is willing to disarm to free the country being held captive by Israel, but not before Israel leaves the territory they occupy illegally, and observe the ceasefire.
Lebanon is a very small country, but to anyone who understands the country and its history, one trait is ingrained in its genetic material, and that is the value of dignity.
Steven Sahiounie of MidEastDiscourse interviewed Dr. Hisham Al-Awar, a writer and researcher in political and international affairs, to gain his insight into the core issues facing Lebanon today.
1. Steven Sahiounie (SS): Given the recent escalation of airstrikes by Israel in southern Lebanon targeting what the military describes as Hezbollah infrastructure, despite the cease-fire agreement of late 2024, how do you assess the current security dynamics on Lebanon's southern border and the prospects for renewed large-scale conflict?
Hisham Al-Awar (HA): Considering the recent escalation in Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon, it is clear that the security dynamics on the southern border remain fragile, and Israel continues to violate the ceasefire agreement reached in late 2024 by targeting civilian and military areas under the pretext of striking "Hezbollah's infrastructure." These repeated aggressions represent a flagrant violation of Lebanon's sovereignty and of international legitimacy resolutions, and confirm that Israel has not de facto committed to ceasing hostilities. In return, Lebanon--its army, its people, and its resistance--has the right to exercise its legitimate right to defend its land and protect its citizens from any aggression, based on the United Nations Charter, which enshrines this right for all states. Despite the diplomatic efforts being made to solidify the calm, the continued Israeli violations increase the likelihood of a broad conflict resuming, unless the international community assumes its responsibilities in pressuring Israel to stop its violations and fully respect Lebanese sovereignty.
2. SS: In light of the ongoing financial and banking-sector crisis in Lebanon, what are the latest reform efforts (both legislative and institutional) you find significant, and what are the realistic chances of restoring depositor confidence and stabilizing the banking system?
HA: In light of the ongoing financial and banking crisis in Lebanon, a set of legislative and institutional efforts emerged during 2025 aimed at rebuilding the financial system and restoring lost confidence. Parliament approved substantial amendments to the banking secrecy law, allowing regulatory and judicial authorities to review accounts and trace suspicious funds--a step considered essential for combating corruption and assigning accountability. Furthermore, a draft law to restructure the banking sector was reintroduced, aiming to address the financial gap by liquidating troubled banks and recapitalizing viable institutions, while establishing clear mechanisms to protect small depositors and ensure transparency in the distribution of losses.
Concurrently, the Central Bank of Lebanon continued to adjust its regulations related to US dollar withdrawals and improve liquidity-injection mechanisms, while communications with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank intensified to secure conditional financial support. Although these steps represented relative progress on the reform path, the chances of restoring confidence remain contingent on key factors, most notably the actual and transparent implementation of reforms, the independence of the central bank's management from political disputes, and the launch of a comprehensive external audit to clarify the true scale of the losses.
Practically speaking, it can be said that Lebanon today stands before a limited window of opportunity to rebuild its financial system on new foundations, provided there is the political will to implement laws away from pressures and interests. The success of the reform plan would gradually restore depositor confidence over the next two years, whereas continued stagnation and procrastination would keep the banking system hostage to a loss of credibility and deep recession.
3. SS: Given Lebanon's current, complex landscape--navigating a new presidency, a persistent economic collapse, and a highly volatile security situation related to Hezbollah's disarmament and the fragile cessation of hostilities--what are the primary factors that will determine the viability and credibility of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026?
HA: In light of the current Lebanese landscape, the anticipated 2026 parliamentary elections appear to be governed by a set of interconnected factors that will determine their seriousness and credibility. Foremost among these is the ability of the political authority to pass a just electoral law that reflects the genuine representation of Lebanon's various components and ensures equal opportunities for all candidates, away from the logic of exclusion and marginalization. The troubled political climate, the sharp division over Hezbollah's weapons, the ongoing economic collapse, and the continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon are all challenges that weigh heavily on the electoral process and make it a test for the credibility of the new presidential term and its will for reform.
Any election not built on the foundations of justice and balance will lose its democratic meaning, especially if external pressures or interventions are invoked to target any Lebanese component or influence voters' choices. Therefore, restoring confidence in the electoral process requires a modern law, transparent administration, and independent judicial supervision. This is essential to affirm the right of the Lebanese to freely choose their representatives and to restore the standing of the democratic process as the sole path out of the successive crises.
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