"In September, UN member states adopted an important, wide-ranging document designed to reaffirm the UN Charter, reinvigorate multilateralism, boost implementation of existing commitments, and advance concrete solutions to global challenges, including the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons," said the Arms Control Association's Darryl Kimball in his story "Confronting the Threats Posed by Threats of Nuclear Use".
In the "Pact for the Future", UN member states expressed their "deep concern" over the state of nuclear disarmament. They reaffirmed support for the common goal of a world free of nuclear weapons to fulfill the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty objectives. They also agreed on the need to "take all steps to prevent nuclear war". UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that the pact represents the "first agreed multilateral support for nuclear disarmament in more than a decade". At a time of unprecedented geopolitical division, the pact's five core nuclearnorms-- no nuclear use, no threats of use, no nuclear testing, no nuclear weapons buildups, and nonproliferation-- represent an essential breakthrough that all states, particularly the US, must build on through specific, sustained actions.
Russian leaders continue to warn that they may resort to using nuclear weapons if the US or other allies of Ukraine cross Russia's redlines for nuclear use; all states need to fulfill their pledges to "make every effort" to avert the danger of nuclear war. Russian President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and his warnings of possible nuclear weapons use in response to non-nuclear threats have raised the specter of a nuclear conflict in ways not seen in the post-Cold War era.
During his 2020 presidential campaign, President Joe Biden pledged to adopt a policy where the "sole purpose" of nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear weapons use. Unfortunately, once Biden was in the White House, his 2022 Nuclear Posture Review fell short of his pledges; as with Russia's formal nuclear weapons declaratory policy, Biden's policy retains the option of using nuclear weapons to respond to non-nuclear threats under extreme circumstances.
Any US President should do more to reinforce the global norm against nuclear weapons use. Rather than trying to distinguish between Russia's irresponsible nuclear threat rhetoric and its own nuclear deterrence signaling, the US should join non-nuclear-weapon states that condemn nuclear use and threats of nuclear use of any kind as dangerous, disproportionate, and illegal.
Donald Trump will be sworn in as President in January. His foreign policy is isolationist. In his first term, he was an isolationist who conceded much to the military-industrial complex. Trump said he wants a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, a commitment the American people are growing tired of. Perhaps a negotiated settlement will end the Ukraine war. If so, will Russia adhere to international norms and maybe cooperate with the US on nuclear arms control? It remains to be seen. If a ceasefire represents a resting period, then Russia will initiate another rampage, and there will be no lasting peace.
The next President will have to work with America's allies and its foes to control the number of nuclear weapons in the world. I doubt Trump's isolationism will help much in this regard. The Middle East is another hot spot in the world. Right now, some are worried about Iran developing nuclear weapons as a method of countering Israel's power. What will happen if Iran develops nuclear weapons? Saudi Arabia and several other Arab powers will acquire nuclear weapons, and proliferation will spread around the region. This represents another problem for the Trump administration.
China's Xi Jinping stated his country should be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. China and Russia are in the same orbit. Naturally, if China takes this path, there will be no cooperation between the great powers. What do we need to do in the future to prevent war between the great powers? It will take diplomatic engagement, promotion of international norms, and great power balancing. Can we do this under Trumpian isolationism? I don't think so. We're far from Franklin Roosevelt's method of keeping the peace, the Four Policemen, or great power cooperation, but if we're smart, we'll find a way to recreate this method of security peace.
Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project
Post Article Comment and Rate This Article
