Eighty-five seconds. I more or less used up that much time just writing these two sentences. And yet that's all the time that's now left on the Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists before reaching a "midnight" of nuclear war. And that's closer than it's ever been since, in 1947, in the wake of the atomic destruction of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II, that clock was first created and set at seven minutes to midnight. And mind you, in 1947, there was only one country with atomic weapons, the United States. Forty-four years later, in 1991, in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, it was reset to 17 minutes to midnight, the farthest away of all these years.
This January 27th, however, with nine countries now having nuclear weapons (and more undoubtedly in the offing), and our world in increasing turmoil, the Bulletin's scientists decided that a grim reset was indeed in order and put that clock at a mere 85 seconds to midnight. And little wonder, since we're in an ever madder world. I mean, forget everything else on this planet and just imagine that the nuclear power with perhaps the strongest military (my country!) is now led by a genuine nutcase (and it's spending $87 billion on its nuclear arsenal this year alone, while creating a future "Trump class" of warships that will be armed with nuclear missiles). Hey, and "my" president just kidnapped the president of another country, is threatening the island of Cuba, has claimed the right to the giant island of Greenland, and is hinting at going to war with Iran.
Vladimir Putin, the head of the second great power to get such weaponry (then known as the Soviet Union, now Russia), is at war in Ukraine and has implied that he might indeed need to use such weaponry there. Meanwhile, the third major power on the planet, China, has been rushing to strengthen its own nuclear arsenal. And worse yet, the last significant nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Russia only recently came to an end without being renewed.
Under the circumstances, I think I might have to return to my childhood and start practicing "ducking and covering" under the desk in my office (as I once did under my desk in elementary school). And while I'm doing so, let TomDispatch regular Frida Berrigan, who has regularly written about nuclear matters for this site, take you deep into her world at this 85-second moment in global history. Tom
85 Seconds to My Own Midnight?
Or Our Nuclear World, Up Close and Personal
"I'm not scared, you're scared!" is the repeated line in a children's story we recently read to the kids at the Unitarian Universalist version of Sunday school I attend with my children. In that story, a scared bear and a brave rabbit, who (naturally!) are best friends, go on a hike together. Rabbit has to cajole and encourage Bear through every imaginable obstacle, but in the end (of course!) it's Rabbit who gets stuck at the crucial moment and has to call on Bear for help. Bear (no surprise) sets aside his fears to rescue his friend and (tada!) finds new depths of bravery and adventurousness in the process.
After we read the story, the kids worked together to build paths from blocks and Legos through the imagined obstacles in the story -- a bridge over a rushing river, a path through a dark forest, a staircase up a steep mountain. It was one of our most engaging classes in recent memory, while the kids kept saying, "I'm not scared, you're scared!" and laughing while they played. As we stacked blocks and fit Legos together, we adults were supposed to help the kids identify things they were afraid of and how they could confront those fears. For me, it was just one thing too many. I blanked on that part of the assignment.
Yes, I'm Scared
In fact, I was a little relieved to have done so. Of course, I have fears myself, but I'm not afraid of spiders or heights or small spaces like so many people. I am afraid of nuclear war -- not something I would want to confess to a bunch of kids sitting on carpet squares.
What should I have said? "Okay, kids, I know some of you are afraid of monsters or werewolves or the Wither Storm in Minecraft, but I'll tell you something truly terrifying: the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists just moved its Doomsday Clock to 85 seconds to 'nuclear midnight,' four seconds closer than ever before." I would have gotten blank stares and quick subject changes and yet, once I had started, I would undoubtedly have kept on sharing the telltale heart of my own bogeyman. "When I was a kid in the 1980s," I would have said, "we were at three minutes to metaphorical midnight and my dad, who was an activist, wouldn't even let me go to the movies. Now, they have pushed it even closer -- closer than ever before. With nine countries armed with nuclear weapons, we've tick-tocked ourselves to 85 seconds to midnight. Yep, 85 seconds, by the way, is probably less time than it takes you to spell your full name or tie your shoes."
Of course, I kept those long-winded, fact-filled fears to myself at that Sunday school. But I'll tell you all that, in truth, it's far worse than even what I thought that day. The Bulletin's scientists who made the announcement about those 85 seconds to midnight were contending with more than nuclear dangers (which have, by the way, never been more imminent). Those scientists were also responding to the speeding up of catastrophic climate change and the threats posed by artificial intelligence (AI). In the words of Daniel Holz on the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, "The dangerous trends in nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies like AI, and biosecurity are accompanied by another frightening development: the rise of nationalistic autocracies in countries around the world. Our greatest challenges require international trust and cooperation, and a world splintering into 'us versus them' will leave all of humanity more vulnerable."
Yes, all of humanity is vulnerable indeed -- like my young friends building Lego bridges across felt rivers for a Bear and a Rabbit birthed in late night comedian Seth Meyers's imagination.
The End of Arms Control as We Knew It
And as if all of that weren't terrifying enough, Thursday, February 5th marked the end of arms control as we've known it. The last treaty controlling nuclear weapons between my country and Russia expired without a replacement on that day, leaving us all vulnerable to the whims of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. There are reports of a handshake deal between the two countries to extend the principles of the treaty, but haphazard and informal agreements are simply not "arms control" (at least as we once knew it).
(Note: You can view every article as one long page if you sign up as an Advocate Member, or higher).
Post Article Comment and Rate This Article
